By the Numbers

Monday, March 09, 2009

Declining Michigan Birth Rate Threatens Future Of State Colleges

LANSING - Michigan's birth rate has been on a continuous decline since 1990 and could have a major effect on the number of students entering the state's public universities if the percentage of high school seniors entering college does not increase, so concludes a paper published by the Senate Fiscal Agency. The children born in the state in 1990, 153,080 of them, were 2008's freshman class in the state's universities, the paper said. But a constant decline in births since the 1990s could mean a significant decline in the number of college freshmen in Michigan if the current percentages of students attending school remain constant. However, the state's continuing economic difficulties could mean more high school students seeking out college educations, which could counter the raw decline in young people in the state, the paper said. From the 153,080 babies born in Michigan in 1990, the number dropped by 13 percent by 1996, to 133,231 infants born in the state. In 2008, there were 126,380 students in high school's 12th grade, the paper said. By 2014, if other factors stay constant, the lower 1996 birth total could mean a 12th grade population in 2014 of 106,585. Going forward even further, the picture does not change. While the paper looked at statistics just through 1996, U.S. Census Bureau data showed than 2005 there were 127,706 live births in Michigan. That fell to 127,476 live births in 2006. The percentage of Michigan 12th graders who enter college as freshmen has varied since 2000, the paper said, ranging from 50.7 percent of the class of 2001, or 51,612 freshmen college students, to 43.6 percent of the class of 2007, or 50,574 college freshmen.<;P> In 2008, 47.5 percent of the 12th graders went on to college, 59,999. The paper postulates that if that percentage of 12th graders going to college remains at the 2008 level, then in 2014 the number of freshmen entering college would total 50,601. What could change that, the paper said, is the current economic situation. "Due to the deterioration of the auto industry in Michigan, it is possible that more students will see the need to seek postsecondary education in order to secure a job. This may actually bolster the rather low percentage of 12th graders who enroll at Michigan's universities," the paper said. But the paper also concluded that while it is a goal of the state to double the number of college graduates, it "will be both more important and more difficult in the face of a declining number of Michigan high school graduates."